GivingTuesday's Data
Analytics

Report by Peter Brach

Executive Summary
GivingTuesday (GT) has made projections of extraordinary magnitude: Based on analytics from its 2024 media campaign, GT projects that raising $300,000 for its 2025 campaign will bring awareness of its movement to between 30.6 and 51 million additional people in the U.S. These numbers translate to reaching from 33% to between 42% and 48% of this population. According to its 2024 giving-conversion data, GT estimates these gains could generate between $1.1 and $1.58 billion on December 2, 2025, its annual day of giving.

As a second already funded campaign, GT expects to serve up to 50,000 nonprofits through its soon-to-be online bot and 12-part fundraising curriculum. This second campaign component is relevant to this report because it could complement the first by significantly increasing giving.

While projections at this scale naturally invite scrutiny, they are grounded in robust data from ten years of predictive analytics through the GivingTuesday Data Commons, which utilizes AI-powered models. These projections were also derived by integrating multi-sourced data analytics, including large sample surveys, a year-over-year trend analysis, advertising analytics, and mathematical calculations.

About This Report
This report draws on three sources of information: (1) two interviews with Chris Worman, Chief Officer for Global Strategy and Partnerships at GivingTuesday; (2) desk research, with links provided where available, though some data is internal and unpublished; and (3) independent calculations conducted by Propel Philanthropy to test GivingTuesday’s projections.

Based on percentages rather than numbers, these calculations produced estimates that align closely with GivingTuesday’s projections of new giving. Some of the discrepancy arises because Propel Philanthropy’s data relied on publicly available sources, including a U.S. population estimate of 340.1 million people and a 34% awareness rate of the movement in the U.S.—both slightly higher than GT’s figures. A key limitation of this report is the inability to predict with precision what proportion of newly aware individuals will donate or at what average amount. The mathematical estimates presented here should therefore be considered suggestive rather than definitive.

To provide context, the report includes dedicated sections on supporting factors and limiting factors, offering a balanced view of both the strengths and constraints of these projections.

Notwithstanding these constraints, this report indicates that:

• The number of newly aware individuals will likely be in the tens of millions.
• Increasing awareness of GivingTuesday represents a systemic, forward-looking approach to expanding generosity.
• GivingTuesday is likely to generate donations significantly exceeding the cost of its 2025 media campaign.

Multi-Source Data Analytics:

1. Surveys: large sample surveys tracked recent and longer-term awareness of GT. Results showed that 84% of respondents were somewhat, significantly, or completely influenced to give because of this awareness. However, the breakdown among these three categories is not available. Therefore, it can be safely assumed that 84% of respondents were at a minimum somewhat influenced to give by becoming aware of GT’s movement.
2. Year-over-Year Increase: Giving rose from $3.1 billion in 2023 to $3.6 billion in 2024. One notable change: GT invested $80,000 in a media campaign in 2024. While GT attributes part of the increase to trend data, other factors, such as higher public engagement, also contributed to these outcomes. However, while we can’t definitively isolate the media campaign’s impact, the correlation is noteworthy as one of numerous factors presented in this report.
3. Advertising Analytics: Based on analyzing 2023 media results and survey data, GT calculates that $300,000 in advertising will raise awareness of its movement by 9–15%, including 30.6-51 million individuals.
4. Mathematical Projections: Propel Philanthropy’s own calculations—aligned with and approved by GT—estimate that 16.0% of those newly aware individuals will donate. This math is consistent with, but slightly higher than, GT’s projections. When applying the median donation of $76 instead of the mean donation of $195, we obtain a significantly higher participation rate (41.6% vs. 16.0%) but lower per-person amounts. Both approaches yield high total revenue projections based on percentages.

Supporting Nonprofit Capacity Building
Through its partnerships, GT estimates that 1.5 million nonprofits will learn about its upcoming bot and online fundraising curriculum. GT projects that up to one in thirty, or 50,000 nonprofits, will adopt these services in the near future, with additional organizations following over time. This initiative, though funded separately, complements the media campaign. The process works as follows: A percentage of the 30.6 to 51 million individuals recently made aware of GT through its media campaign will receive fundraising requests from nonprofits because they were newly empowered by GT’s resources to set up campaigns. Since those approached will know about GT, they will be more likely to donate when asked.

Mathematical Calculations

1. U.S. Population: ~340.1 million individuals
2. Current GivingTuesday Awareness: 34% of the U.S. population (~115.6 million people)
3. 2024 Total U.S. Donations: $3.6 billion raised on GivingTuesday

From these statistics, we calculate that 16.0% of people aware of GivingTuesday donated in 2024 based on:

• Total aware population: 34% of the U.S. population or 115.6 million individuals
• Total donations in 2024: $3.6 billion
• Average donation amount: $195
• Number of donors: $3.6 billion ÷ $195 = ~18.5 million donors
• Conversion rate: 18.5 million donors ÷ 115.6 million aware = 16.0%

This data indicates that one in six people living in the U.S. who are aware of GivingTuesday’s movement will donate.

$300,000 Ad Campaign Awareness Results: Conservative Scenario (9% increase):

• Increases total awareness from 34% to 42%
• 8% increase of 340.1 million U.S. population = 27.2 million additional individuals
• 27.2 million individuals × 16.0% = 4.35 million new donors

$300,000 Ad Campaign Awareness Results: Optimistic Scenario (14% increase):

• Increases total awareness from 34% to 48%
• 14% increase of 340 million U.S. population = 47.6 million additional individuals
• 47.6 million individuals × 16.0% = 7.62 million new donors

Revenue Generation with Conservative Scenario at $195 per donor:

• 4.35 million new donors × $195 = $848 million in new donations

Revenue Generation with Optimistic Scenario at $195 per donor:

• 7.62 million new donors × $195 = $1.49 billion in new donations

Supporting Factors

1. Data collections by GT’s hundreds of partners only included traceable online transactions and some voluntary reporting from nonprofits when arriving at GivingTuesday totals, such as $3.6 billion donated in 2024. It did not track giving to thousands of nonprofits that did not report results. (Listings 2 only pertain to reported outcomes on GivingTuesday as well.)
2. GT only tracks financial donations, not other forms of giving, including remittances, direct services, volunteerism, and community activities that also occur on GivingTuesday. In 2023, 20% of people in the U.S. donated goods, and 18% volunteered.
3. Repeated Giving: GT reports that 86% of those who know about its movement are inspired to be more generous. Neon One reported that in 2023, 80% made a recurring gift by the end of the year, with a 34% increase in recurring gifts that year.
4. Consistent Findings: Other analytics also report that 18.5 million people living in the U.S. gave on GivingTuesday, 2024.

Limiting Factors

1. Conversion Rate Stability: The 16.0% rate will likely be lower for individuals who are newly aware of GT.
2. Variable Giving: How much people give varies considerably. While our calculations use average donation amounts, they don’t account for the wide variability in individual giving patterns.
3. Average Donation Consistency: New donors will likely give at a rate lower than the $195 average of existing donors because early adopters and existing donors typically have higher engagement rates.
4. Cannibalization: Some giving will affect donors’ choices to give to other charities. However, FAQ 5 on our dedicated GivingTuesday page provides an extensive analysis of this factor. This analysis demonstrates that donations on this annual day of giving are largely additive to what donors give throughout the year. GivingTuesday offers additional information on cannibalization.
5. Presenting Non-Public Data: Some information for this report was derived through interviews and is not verifiable through publicly available resources.
6. Translating Knowledge to Actions: GT has discovered that people who learn about its movement are 84% more likely to give. However, we do not know, for example, whether they are very, considerably, or somewhat likely to give as a result.

Conclusion
GT projects that a $300,000 media campaign will increase awareness of its movement by 9–15%, potentially reaching 30.6–51 million additional people in the U.S. and generating between $1.1 and $1.58 billion in new giving on December 2, 2025. While projections at this scale naturally invite scrutiny, the key point is not certainty around a single figure, but the reliability of the underlying framework: multi-sourced analytics, decade-long trend data, and independent calculations that converge within similar  outcome ranges.

Even if results fall below expectations, several conclusions remain clear. First, raising awareness of GT on this scale is itself a lasting achievement, since brand awareness compounds over time, and a portion of new donors are likely to continue giving in subsequent years. Second, the campaign will coincide with new resources—such as the bot and fundraising curriculum. These resources will strengthen tens of thousands of nonprofits, amplifying the impact of new awareness. Finally, the scale of potential returns far exceeds the relatively small investment, suggesting that the campaign represents a leveraged opportunity even under conservative assumptions.

In sum, the value of this campaign should not be measured solely by whether it produces $1.1 to $1.58 billion, or something in between, on a single day. Its broader significance lies in expanding the culture of generosity, providing long-term benefits to nonprofits, and demonstrating the extraordinary leverage that we can achieve by supporting social sector infrastructure.