Report by Peter Brach
Executive Summary
GivingTuesday (GT) has made projections of extraordinary magnitude: Based on analytics from its 2024 media campaign, GT calculates that raising $300,000 for its 2025 campaign will bring awareness of its movement to between 30.6 and 51 million additional people in the U.S. These numbers translate to reaching from 34%, the current percentage of people aware of GT’s movement in the U.S., to between 42% and 49% of this population. According to its 2024 giving-conversion data, GT estimates these gains could generate between $1.1 and $1.58 billion on December 2, 2025, its annual day of giving.
As a second already funded campaign, GT expects to serve tens of thousands of nonprofits through its 12-part fundraising curriculum and soon-to-be online bot. GT has attracted 10,300 visits to the curriculum over the last five weeks. This second campaign component is relevant to this report because, as explained below, it could complement the first by significantly increasing giving.
While projections at this scale naturally invite scrutiny, they are grounded in robust data from ten years of predictive analytics through the GivingTuesday Data Commons, which utilizes AI-powered models. These projections were also derived by integrating multi-sourced data analytics, including large sample surveys, a year-over-year trend analysis, advertising analytics, and mathematical calculations.
About This Report
This report draws on three sources of information: (1) two interviews with Chris Worman, Chief Officer for Global Strategy and Partnerships at GivingTuesday; (2) desk research, with links provided where available, though some data is internal and unpublished; and (3) independent calculations conducted by Propel Philanthropy.
This report’s calculations are based on a U.S. population estimate of 340.1 million people and a 34% awareness rate of the movement in the U.S. A key limitation of this report is the inability to predict with precision what proportion of newly aware individuals will donate or at what average amount. The mathematical estimates presented here should therefore be considered suggestive rather than definitive.
To provide context, the report includes dedicated sections on supporting factors and limiting factors, offering a balanced view of both the strengths and constraints of these projections.
Notwithstanding these constraints, this report suggests that:
- The number of newly aware individuals will very likely be in the tens of millions.
- Increasing awareness of GivingTuesday represents a systemic, forward-looking approach to expanding generosity.
- GivingTuesday is likely to generate donations significantly exceeding the cost of its 2025 media campaign.
Multi-Source Data Analytics:
- Surveys: large sample surveys tracked recent and longer-term awareness of GT. Results showed that 84% of respondents were somewhat, significantly, or completely influenced to give because of previous awareness of GT prior to being asked. However, the breakdown among these three categories was not constructed. Therefore, it can be safely assumed that 84% of respondents were at a minimum somewhat influenced to give by becoming aware of GT’s movement.
- Year-over-Year Increase: Giving rose by $500 million from $3.1 billion in 2023 to $3.6 billion in 2024. One notable change: GT invested $80,000 in a media campaign in 2024. While GT attributes part of the increase to trend data, other factors, such as higher public engagement, also contributed to these outcomes. However, while we can’t definitively isolate the media campaign’s impact, the correlation is noteworthy as one of four key data sources presented in this report.
- Advertising Analytics: Based on analyzing 2024 media results and survey data, GT calculates that $300,000 in advertising will raise awareness of its movement by 9–15%, or 30.6-51 million individuals.
- Mathematical Projections: This report’s calculations estimate that 16.0% of those newly aware individuals will donate. This percentage is consistent with GT’s calculations. Included are several conservative and optimistic scenarios. The final and most conservative scenarios presume that only 10% of those made aware of GT’s movement will give $119.00 per person rather than the known average of $195.00. This second number was derived by beginning with the average of $195.00 and subtracting the mean of $76.00.
Supporting Nonprofit Capacity Building
Through its partnerships, GT estimates that 1.5 million nonprofits will learn about its upcoming bot and online fundraising curriculum. GT projects that up to one in thirty, or 50,000 nonprofits, will adopt these services in the near future, with additional organizations following over time. This initiative, though funded separately, complements the media campaign. The process works as follows: A percentage of the 30.6 to 51 million individuals recently made aware of GT through its media campaign will receive fundraising requests from nonprofits because they were newly empowered by GT’s resources to set up or improve on existing campaigns. Since those approached will know about GT, they will be more likely to donate when asked.
Mathematical Calculations
- U.S. Population: ~340.1 million individuals
- Current GivingTuesday Awareness: 34% of the U.S. population (~115.6 million people)
- 2024 Total U.S. Donations: $3.6 billion raised on GivingTuesday
From these statistics, we calculate that 16.0% of people aware of GivingTuesday donated in 2024, based on:
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Total aware population: 34% of the U.S. population, or 115.6 million individuals
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Total donations in 2024: $3.6 billion
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Average donation amount: $195.00
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Number of donors: $3.6 billion ÷ $195.00 = ~18.5 million donors
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Conversion rate: 18.5 million donors ÷ 115.6 million aware = 16.0%
Conservative Scenario (9% increase):
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Increases total awareness from 34% to 43%
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9% of 340.1 million U.S. population = 30.6 million additional individuals
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30.6 million × 16.0% = 4.9 million new donors
Optimistic Scenario (15% increase):
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Increases total awareness from 34% to 49%
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15% of 340 million U.S. population = 51.0 million additional individuals
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51.0 million × 16.0% = 8.16 million new donors
Revenue Generation
Conservative Scenario:
4.9 million new donors × $195.00 = $955 million in new donations
Optimistic Scenario:
8.16 million new donors × $195.00 = $1.59 billion in new donations
More Conservative Estimates
In this scenario, we assume each donor gives the average donation ($195.00) minus the median ($76.00), which equals $119.00. We also lower the projected share of newly aware people who donate from 16% to 10%.
Revised Conservative Estimate
30.6 million individuals × 10.0% = 3.06 million new donors
3.06 million donors × $119.00 = $364.14 million in new donations
Revised Optimistic Estimate
51.0 million individuals × 10.0% = 5.10 million new donors
5.10 million donors × $119.00 = $606.9 million in new donations
Supporting Factors
- Data collections by GT’s hundreds of partners only included traceable online transactions and some voluntary reporting from nonprofits when arriving at GivingTuesday totals, such as $3.6 billion donated in 2024. It did not track giving to thousands of nonprofits that did not report results. (Listings 2 only pertain to reported outcomes on GivingTuesday as well.)
- GT only tracks financial donations, not other forms of giving, including remittances, direct services, volunteerism, and community activities that also occur on GivingTuesday. In 2023, 20% of people in the U.S. donated goods, and 18% volunteered.
- Repeated Giving: GT reports that 86% of those who know about its movement are inspired to be more generous. Neon One reported that in 2023, 80% made a recurring gift by the end of the year, with a 34% increase in recurring gifts that year.
- The GivingTuesday Giving Commons data was combined with AI-powered models and the integration of multi-sourced data analytics. These included large sample surveys, a year-over-year trend analysis, advertising analytics, and mathematical calculations.
Limiting Factors
- Conversion Rate Stability: The 16.0% rate will likely be lower for individuals who are newly aware of GT.
- Variable Giving: How much people give varies considerably. While our calculations use average donation amounts, they don’t account for the wide variability in individual giving patterns.
- Average Donation Consistency: New donors will likely give at a rate lower than the $195 average of existing donors because early adopters and existing donors typically have higher engagement rates.
- Cannibalization: Some giving will affect donors’ choices to give to other charities. However, FAQ 5 on our dedicated GivingTuesday page provides an extensive analysis of this factor. This analysis demonstrates that donations on this annual day of giving are largely additive to what donors give throughout the year. GivingTuesday offers additional information on cannibalization.
- Presenting Non-Public Data: Some information for this report was derived through interviews and is not verifiable through publicly available resources.
- Translating Knowledge to Actions: GT has discovered that people who learn about its movement are 84% more likely to give. However, we do not know, for example, whether they are very, considerably, or somewhat likely to give as a result.
Conclusion
GT projects that a $300,000 media campaign will increase awareness of its movement by 9–15%, potentially reaching 30.6–51 million additional people in the U.S. and generating between $1.1 and $1.58 billion in new giving on December 2, 2025. While projections at this scale naturally invite scrutiny, the key point is not certainty around a single figure, but the reliability of the underlying framework: multi-sourced analytics, decade-long trend data, and independent calculations that converge within similar outcome ranges.
Increased awareness of GT’s campaign will bring about several key Benefits. 1) The actual amount raised on GivingTuesday will be higher, and likely significantly higher than announced. 2) Awareness growth will also translate into increased volunteerism and other forms of giving, including serving people directly, supporting a community, and pro-bono support. 3) Brand awareness compounds over time, and a portion of new donors are likely to continue giving in subsequent years.
In sum, the value of this campaign should not be measured solely by whether it produces $1.1 to $1.58 billion, or something in between, on a single day. Its broader significance lies in expanding the culture of generosity, providing long-term benefits to nonprofits, and demonstrating the extraordinary leverage that we can achieve by supporting social sector infrastructure.